CD6 - the Ventura connection

As we look forward to the DFL convention in the sixth congressional district this weekend, I have been trying to sort out what the available data can tell us about the electability of the two candidates seeking the nomination. I've looked at the available data from a number of different perspectives, and I've come to the conclusion that . . . it's really hard to draw any conclusions.

In a previous post, I have looked at the voting history of the district as a whole and argued that (1) under the right circumstances, a DFL candidate can win this district, and that (2) we cannot easily compare 2006 to 2004 because it's not a presidential year and there is no incumbent in the race.

(In two other posts, I have looked a the role of PAC donations to all candidates -- though see the correction -- and focused in on the funding sources of the Republican contenders.)

Here, I'd like to look briefly at an argument I've seen advanced in a number of different places -- that Tinklenberg's centrist credentials make him a more electable candidate. His service as Transportation Commissioner under Jesse Ventura is frequently cited because Ventura ran so strongly in the 6th district. I've done the calculations to assign the 1998 precincts to the current congressional districts, so I can tell you the exact numbers:

Ventura percentage of vote, 1998:
     37.0% statewide
     46.3% future 6th district area

At first glance, this is really impressive. But of course, how people felt about Ventura after four years in the Governor's mansion was quite different than how they had felt during the 1998 election. There are also these numbers:

Penny percentage of vote, 2002:
     16.2% statewide
     13.6% sixth district

I don't think that you can read Penny's totals as a referendum on Ventura, but these numbers certainly don't suggest that sixth district voters continue to hunger for candidates with "independent" credentials.

Even if we were to conclude that Tinklenberg would do well with Ventura voters, that only helps him if those voters are disproportionately more likely to support a Republican in a U.S. Congress race, all things being equal. (In other words, if Tinklenberg's centrist credentials are more likely to attract moderate Democrats than moderate Republicans, it doesn't end up helping that much.)

I've run maps for both the 1998 and 2002 elections, only to conclude that there are no obvious correlations between partisan geographic areas and support for the two third-party candidates. Penny did poorly throughout the district, only breaking significantly above his statewide percentage in a few scattered precincts. Ventura fared better in traditionally Republican precincts than in Democratic ones, but recall that Skip Humphrey got an anemic 28.1% that year. At that level, chances are good that he lost votes badly to Ventura -- and it may have been precisely those minority Democratic voters in 'red' precincts that were most likely to defect. We just can't tell from the election data alone.

(Someone probably did some postelection polling to sort this out, but I wasn't living in Minnesota in 1998 and did not follow the Ventura election that closely. If someone can point me to serious evidence-based examination of where Ventura voters came from, as opposed to run-of-the-mill punditry, I'd be interested.)

The nomination of Bachmann by the GOP complicates the question even more, since Bachmann has been such a polarizing figure at times. It may be the case that the DFL's best shot at taking the seat is to find the candidate who will look the best to moderate voters in comparison to Bachmann -- and that may not have anything at all to do with stances on the issues or "independent" credentials, but more on the ability to present a clear message that will cut through the coming influx of independent expenditure spending on this race.

To conclude where I started, I don't really have a good answer to the electability question from the data alone. (I admit I have my own personal hunch, but this blog isn't about hunches.) If you have suggestions for other data that would be relevant to this question, let me know in the comments.

Update: Minor typos corrected.

posted by DK @ 1:06 AM permalink