Why the suburbs matter
Before becoming the talk of the town this past week, Polinaut put up a brief posting on how too few people in the media pay attention to the importance of the suburbs in Minnesota politics. This is worth expanding upon -- and since Polinaut seems to be occupied decompiling the GOP's latest gaffe, it seemed like a good opening subject for this blog.
Let's start with the straight numbers. This shouldn't surprise anyone, but the suburbs taken together are vastly larger in terms of population than the two central cities. The population of the seven-county area covered by the Met Council makes up 54% of Minnesota's total. Subtract the central cities and we're left with 40% of Minnesota's population -- about 2 million people -- living in the suburbs. (I know, the exurbs are now stretching beyond the seven-county area; I'll get to that below.)
Now, the immediate reaction of many folks living outside the metropolitan area is: what makes that 40% any more special than the 46% of the population living in greater Minnesota? Well, from a political point of view, there are three key reasons to focus on the burbs:
(1) Money. I won't get into the economic statistics here (maybe that could be fodder for another post), but the folks living in the suburbs have more money available to give to campaigns and interest groups seeking to affect the electoral process.
(2) Proximity. Since all of the folks in the suburbs live relatively close to one another and pay attention to the same media outlets, it makes it easier to get a message out and to organize -- much easier than in greater Minnesota.
(3) Competitiveness. For years, suburban voters in Minnesota have been closely divided between the two parties. This had been most true in the inner suburbs like Roseville and Richfield, but it is now becoming increasingly true across the board.
The best way to get a handle on this is through mapping the vote. Unfortunately, no one in the traditional media seems to know how to do this properly to make the patterns stand out clearly. I constantly see maps that show blue and red counties, or blue and red legislative districts (and don't get me started on blue and red states). Here's how it should be done.
First, let's look at where the metropolitan population actually is, since it's not spread out evenly across the Met Council area. In the 2000 Census, the Census Bureau introduced something they call the "urbanized area" around a city. This is a carefully drawn depiction of an area with a minimum population density and it gives us a nice starting point.
Here's the urbanized area around the Twin Cities:
Now, instead of looking at the voting data by county, let's take it all the way down to the precinct level. Further, rather than relying on two primary colors, we'll use some shading so we can tell if a precinct was a party stronghold or if it just barely tipped the balance. Finally, we'll highlight "swing" precincts, those where the margin between the candidates was 55% - 45% or less. This is what we get:
(I tried to overlay the urbanized area map onto the voting percentage maps, but the result did not export very successfully to JPG. But back-and-forth looking should work too, since the scale is the same.)
If one maps the last few elections, one sees roughly the same thing -- a strong democratic central core surrounded by a band of highly competitive suburban precincts. This general pattern has repeated despite the peculiarities of specific elections; a 2002 map is much pinker overall, but there is still a ring of swing precincts:
Unless there are substantial shifts in voting patterns in other parts of the state, statewide races should continue to be won and lost in the suburbs, and the legislative races in the suburbs will generally be the ones most contested in November.
Now, a final point. A first glace at these maps suggests that the DFL has good prospects. In addition to its solid hold on the central cities, it is increasingly dominating the inner suburbs and beginning to make inroads in areas like Minnetonka and Eden Prairie. However, the population patterns in the suburbs are not static. The biggest growth is occurring in the outer suburbs, where the map is still pretty red. Take a look:
In order for the DFL to stay competitive in Minnesota politics in the long term, it will need to offset the decline in its central city base by strengthening its appeal to suburban voters. Can it do so? Is it doing so? And if so, how? I have a few thoughts, but maybe I'll see if anyone is reading this new blog by inviting you to start a conversation in the comments.
posted by DK @ 4:47 PM permalink
8 Comments:
How to reach the outer 'burbs? Some ideas have been presented by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, Inc., after a focus group study of exurban Minnesotans. The document, downloadable, is called The Changing Shape of Minnesota. In the end it recommmends these message components:
1. Government is committed to the “Minnesota way” – ensuring a good
quality of life, quality education, infrastructure and a clean and safe
environment for all
2. Government and citizens share a responsibility to participate in the
collective good.
3. Government is committed to accountability and is open to exploring ways in which they can operate more efficiently and responsibly.
Great sound bites, I know. To really dig deep, I think it's important not to have an aura of "secular arrogance" about one that many exurbanites perceive DFLers posess. This could happen just by publicizing how many preachers already* represent Minnesota districts as DFLers in the state house or senate, maybe.
I found this link to a Washington Monthly column by Amy Sullivan, When Would Jesus Bolt, at MN Politics Guru.
She argues that nationally Dems need to seem friendlier to religion, and offers evidence and examples of evangelicals opening up to Dem alliances.
Simply showing that DFLers are friendly to religion would work well with voters in megachurches in Woodbury, Burnsville, Eden Prairie, Eagan, and elsewhere.
Sorry for the delay in replying, I was sick for a few days there. Thanks for the recommendation of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner document -- I haven't seen it yet, I'll be sure to take a look. I don't always agree with the conclusions Stan draws from his research, but it's nearly always good research.
(Full disclosure: my first job out of college was with a polling firm then headed by Stan Greenberg and Celinda Lake -- Al Quinlan and Mystery Pollster were the junior analysts. That was before Stan made his mark by serving as Clinton's pollster in 92, and I haven't talked with any of those folks in many, many years.)
Welcome. The state discourse can benefit from more evidence-based commentary like this.
Does your job preclude you from having a public profile?
DK, came here via Bob Collins' Polinaut weblog, great stuff!
A question though: is the overall decline in population of the central metro indicative of a decline in the actual number of persons of voting age? I've seen thousands of condos going up in both Mpls. and St. Paul, and I think most are going to be occupied by singles or couples with no or few children. Just a thought.
Thanks for the blog and the challenge. I agree that the 'burbs in the twin City metro area offer a great opporunity for the DFL to define itself if it will compete. having lived in a twin city 'burb for almost 20 years now, I think people are still reeling from change and many new people are unsure what they should be now they are living in the 'burbs.' The default is republican or rather apathy because they assume there is some political apparus in place they might offend if they do the "wrong" thing not knowing that there is no political apparatus in place. Most and I mean 90%+ of the people in suburbia live in isolation from their neighbors and have no idea of what their neighbors think because politics and religion are not polite topics of conversation, especialy in Minnesota.
I echo what "anonymous" said about exurban isolation. I've doorknocked in Eagan and Woodbury and found blocks with Kerry voters at 3 different residences, but where each one said "I'm probably the only Democrat in three miles." Even in townhomes this would happen!
You asked: can the DFL reach out to these folks? yes.
Are they reaching out? I don't know. Not effectively in 2004 they weren't.
How? For that I say see above with the extra note about demonstrating that we aren't hostile to religion.
Anonymous asked: "A question though: is the overall decline in population of the central metro indicative of a decline in the actual number of persons of voting age?"
There's not likely to be a huge difference there; the condo boom is very high profile, but it would take a lot more development to make a significant dent in the demographics.
The census does not have its municipality estimates broken down by age. The smallest sub-geography for which it has age estimates is counties. A quick poking around and data download from the census website provides the following estimates:
Population 18yrs or older
Scott 2000: 61534
Scott 2004: 81658
percentage change: +33%
Sherburne 2000: 44502
Sherburne 2004: 57061
percentage change: +28%
Hennepin 2000: 848534
Hennepin 2004: 857610
percentage change: +1%
Ramsey 2000: 380518
Ramsey 2004: 375344
percentage change: -1%
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